Chequers is on runway, SuperCanada taking off – let’s accept Brexit offer

I was surprised to hear from a UK Ambassador recently that the EU had not put a deal on the table and that the only deal on the table officially was Chequers. Other government briefings and media statements have emphasised that the EU needs to make a ‘counter proposal’ to Chequers. It seems President Tusk just did.

He tweeted: “From the very beginning, the EU offer has been a Canada+++ deal. Much further-reaching on trade, internal security and foreign policy cooperation. This is a true measure of respect. And this offer remains in place.”

I hugely welcome this – it is the SuperCanada Trade deal I have been arguing for for two and a half years plus aspects of the sort of strategic partnership the EU has agreed with Canada, Australia (Framework Agreement) and New Zealand (Parc).

This is not the ‘simple trade deal’ that Theresa May rejected in her Conference speech – it is deeper, wider and broader than Canada’s CETA – Tusk’s “further reaching”. And Tusk makes clear it is still on the table as an offer.

This counts as a ‘counter proposal’ – whether it was there on 7th March, when he said “I propose we aim for a trade agreement covering all sectors and with zero tariffs on goods (that’s one +). Like other free trade agreements, it should address services (a second +; deeper services a third +). I hope that it will be ‘ambitious and advanced’ or not is immaterial now. The offer was restated on 2nd August with public procurement services added as an example of cooperation.

The offer is still there and it’s live. I commend President Tusk and Mr. Barnier for proposing the best ever trade deal they have ever done to date (and I’ve worked on a few over nearly 10 years on the international trade committee including Canada). This is the best basis of a deal and one endorsed by Brexiteers such as Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson, who I am grateful too for supporting ‘SuperCanada’ at Conference as well as the EU. It therefore has the best chance of support through both the Westminster and European Parliaments.

With the clock ticking and the papers soon to go out for the EU Council meeting I am really optimistic we can get such a deal.

This is an excellent offer. We must now accept Chequers is stuck on the runway, but SuperCanada is lifting off.

See the article as it appears on westmonster.com here

You can download David’s SuperCanada proposal here.

How Theresa May can avoid a Brexit bloodbath in seven simple steps

As we approach our party conference, I am fearful we may expect scenes reminiscent of the bloodbath of the Maastricht debates of the early 1990s. I remember Major’s Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd citing the similarity of that debate to the Corn Laws under Peel, that split the party in two – between pro-protectionism and pro-free trade – and the roar in the Hall as he was shouted down. Here we go again.

This time the debate is Chequers or Canada – Canada defined as a SuperCanada/CETA+++ Free Trade Agreement, that suits not only Canada but our Commonwealth cousins New Zealand and Australia, who are now using Canada as the template for their deals with the EU. SuperCanada has become a Commonwealth deal.

But with the clock showing a few minutes to midnight, the Chequers option is facing a brick wall. A combination of strong party and Westminster opposition – with even former Brexit ministers David Davis and Steve Baker resolutely pledging to vote the deal down – and 80 MPs now willing to put country and principle first. Relying on Labour votes to drive a deal so resolutely unpopular in the Conservative party through risks ‘Corn Laws 2 – the Sequel’. More likely Labour will oppose the Chequers deal and it will fail, ushering in no deal.

The UK polling data is frightening: only 19 per cent Conservative voters (YouGov) think we are doing a good job at the negotiations. Add to this the 29 per cent of voters in 44 Conservative marginal seats would be less likely to support their local Conservative member if that member supported Chequers, and Chequers clearly risks handing Corbyn the keys to Number 10 on a silverplate – complete with a bouquet of red roses.

Then there’s the EU. Monsieur Barnier is very charming and polite in saying he likes ‘parts’ of the White Paper, presumably after desperate urging. It is not clear whether this is the content – or the binding, printing style or phraseology.

Comparing the key Brexit models: Chequers v Canada plus

Chequers Canada +
Control of borders EU citizens will keep their current free movement rights until the end of the transition. The UK has yet to set out what it would have in its place afterwards. The UK would have total freedom over immigration policy, at the price of more limited trading access to the EU market.
Solving the Irish question The UK intends to avoid a hard border by aligning with all EU rules “necessary to provide for frictionless trade”. The UK would be outside the customs union but would have a comprehensive free trade deal with the EU, limiting the need for checks through technology.
Control of rules The UK would follow “a common rulebook”, requiring it to copy EU regulations on goods and agri-food. MPs would have to accept the “consequences” if they want to ignore certain rules The UK would be able to change its rules much more, with smooth cross-border trade ensured by a system of “mutual recognition”
Free-trade greatness The UK could in theory strike deals with countries outside of the EU. But lack of flexibility would limit its attractiveness. The UK would leave the customs union and avoid any common rulebook, so there should be no curbs.
Control of laws The European Court of Justice would no longer have “direct jurisdiction” over the UK, but British judges would have to pay “due regard” to its previous rulings A Joint Committee, inspired by what the EU has in place with Canada and Korea, would make binding decisions to resolve issues

 

But his original reaction was perhaps more reliable: with him saying that by allowing U.K. to “pick pieces” of the single market, such a deal “would be the end of the single market and the European project”, may not be “legally feasible”, and that he is “strongly opposed” to the proposal. Wishful reports he is being sidelined were met with firm denials in Germany and France.

So it is quite clear the core proposal in Chequers: that of a Facilitated Customs Arrangement and a EU ‘Common Rulebook’ (cunning language for signing up to EU laws with no say) are seen not just to meander over EU red lines but to stamp up and down on them with great force. Barnier fears this Chequers proposal will simply fall apart.

The EU regards the 4 freedoms and the sanctity of the Single Market as its Holy Grail – and does not like us messing with their scriptures. To separate goods laws (one core freedom) from services (another core freedom) is unacceptable, not to mention no free movement (a third) within the Single Market – like the EEA demands.

Nor does the EU want us either to continue to act as one of their customs borders, collecting duties and imposing tariffs and quotas like an agent. Inauspiciously there is a multibillion-pound battle going on with the EU suing our own customs authorities for allegedly failing to collect billions in Chinese duties. So they don’t even trust us not to turn a blind eye to fraud in their view.

If Chequers isn’t going to fly, then the expected November summit will mean no withdrawal agreement, no transition deal and both of us moving to the same relationship the EU has with China, the USA and India – a World Trade Deal (or ‘no deal’) as early as March next year. The Party Conference will be taking place five to six weeks out from that summit.

But we can rescue a deal in that timescale – as, despite denials, there is indeed a credible alternative plan, one that was our official policy only months ago. That is to revert back to Plan A (SuperCanada) with no loss of political face. An indication was the fact the gentlemanly Eurosceptic Mr Jacob Rees Mogg and gentlemanly Euro-gnthusiast Mr Barnier agreed so readily in their Brussels meeting that: Chequers is dead, long live SuperCanada!

So here’s conceivably how we might get a solution:

  1. Everyone – Eurosceptics, the EU and the U.K. Government – acknowledge how clever it was to propose Chequers 1, as it has fast illuminated our respective negotiating positions, shown UK business and industry that a closer position more akin to the Customs Union/EEA is not deliverable, clarified the EU red lines whilst allowing the EU negotiating guidelines to be made more flexible, unlocked a new EU/Irish willingness to find a sensible common sense solution on the Northern Ireland border issue (such as Mr Varadkar announcing that the EU had told him there was no need for a hard border as soon as Chequers was announced), and made it clear a deal can be struck quickly and successfully – but only along the lines of a SuperCanada/CETA+++ style trade deal, with Mr Barnier even astonishing Labour MPs on the Brexit Select Committee by his vehemence in rejecting Chequers and supporting Canada plus.
  2. The U.K. Government then announces that in light of the strength of the EU reaction and Westminster MP concerns against the Chequers proposal – as David Davis said it is merely a proposal not a deal – then the proposal is to be updated and improved – as many white papers in the negotiating process have been – into a ‘Chequers 2’ proposal. Much of Chequers 2 will remain the same other than for the trade deal section that everyone is finding so unpalatable (plus a few tweaks to the defence section).
  3. Chequers 2 will see our Government reverting back immediately to the original Brexit Department White Paper – version 9 I understand – which incorporates the SuperCanada proposal – as the basis of a deal.
  4. Chequers 2 means the Government can immediately inform President Tusk and Michel Barnier that the offer made on 7th March by Tusk and reiterated by Barnier on 2nd August is hereby accepted in principle as the basis of a future relationship for the purposes of the Withdrawal Agreement. This is an offer of 100 per cent tariff and quota-free access (one +, as Canada, Australia and New Zealand are not getting 100 per cent) and services (a second +). Deeper and more complex services (the third +) can be delivered for all via the WTO by pushing its Trade in Services Agreement (TISA) which covers 70 per cent services GDP in 50 countries, which the EU will have to follow.
  5. The EU will publicly rejoice, welcome and agree that the acceptance of the original offer President Tusk made is a breakthrough, and accept in principle to this now being the basis for an agreement at the proposed mid-November special EU Summit.
  6. Cue an outbreak of relief, joy, and celebration across Europe. The pound leaps, investment surges, the Prime Minister’s poll ratings shoot upwards. Westminster opposition parties reluctantly and gallantly declare their alternate plans for remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market are sadly no longer deliverable, and given the EU has now agreed this deal but could not agree Chequers, that in the interests of the country they will support or at least abstain on the Commons vote. (Alternatively, they will be defeated as Conservative rebels and Labour Eurosceptic rebels are ultimately likely to vote for the deal).
  7. Agree with the EU to work constructively together to resolve the Northern Ireland border issue by mid-November based on technological and creative solutions, as proposed in several UK papers (including my own) and referred to by Mr Barnier when addressing the Brexit Select Committee of MPs. Barnier helpfully said: “We need to see how and when and where these controls would take place. They could be dispersed. They could take place in different places, on board vessels, in ports outside Ireland, they could be done using technological means, they could be dispersed, as I said, or simplified in technological terms. Just to make that absolutely clear, we are not talking about a border. We are talking about controls.”

Then we can all gather in the pub, Leavers and Remainers together, to celebrate and ensure that the growth in the U.K. economy recently announced – is duly maintained, despite Brexit!

You can read the article as it appeared in the telegraph.co.uk here.

The Technological Solution to the Irish Border Customs issue

The supposed “problem” of the post-Brexit border between the UK and Ireland has become a much-debated topic. It is alleged that, unless the UK (or at least Northern Ireland) remains within the EU customs union or, as sometimes claimed, inside the single market, the resulting bureaucracy will lead to massive tailbacks at the UK/Irish border while paperwork is checked, and that this will lead to a breakdown of the better community relations of recent years and even a return to terrorism.

This paper explains why these assumptions are not only unfounded, but grossly exaggerated. It explains the issues involved, sets out some practical measures which have the endorsement of leading authorities in the field and outlines a proposal for how UK/Irish trade could be conducted after Brexit to achieve a frictionless border.

David Campbell Bannerman MEP gives oral evidence to the Exiting the EU Committee

UK Parliament – Exiting the European Union Committee (House of Commons): On 21 March 2018, the Joint-Spokesman on International Trade for the Conservatives in the European Parliament, David Campbell Bannerman MEP was invited to give oral evidence to UK MPs on the Exiting the EU Committee in the House of Commons on ‘The progress of the UK’s negotiations on EU withdrawal’. He spoke specifically on the subject of his ‘SuperCanada‘ and Irish border policy paper proposals to a full contingent of the Committee’s MPs across six political parties, including the Conservative Party, Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP, DUP, and Plaid Cymru.

You can also download a transcript of the Q&A evidence (pdf) by clicking here.

Brexit: Jean-Claude Juncker says UK will ‘regret’ decision

13.3.18

bbc.co.uk/news

The UK will come to “regret” the decision to leave the EU, European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker has warned.

Addressing the European Parliament, Mr Juncker was cheered by Eurosceptic MEPs as he noted the UK’s departure was due on 29 March, 2019.

In response he said the time would come “when you will regret your decision”.

MEPs’ Brexit representative, Guy Verhofstadt, said the UK had to move beyond the “slogans and soundbites”.

But he said that the UK and EU were “very near” to an agreement on citizens’ rights post Brexit.

Read the article in full and David’s comments here.

A Firm Solution to the Hard Border

An independent thinkpiece by David Campbell Bannerman MEP

Background

How UK/Irish trade could be conducted after Brexit to achieve a friction-free border

An independent thinkpiece by David Campbell Bannerman MEP

The “problem” of the border between the UK and Ireland after Brexit has become a much-debated topic. It is alleged that, unless the UK (or at least Northern Ireland) remains within the EU Customs Union (or, sometimes, inside the Single Market), the resulting bureaucracy will lead to massive tailbacks at the UK/Irish border while paperwork is checked, and that this will lead to a breakdown of the better community relations of recent years.

This note explains why these allegations are unfounded. It explains the issues involved, sets out some practical measures which have the endorsement of leading authorities in the field and outlines a proposal for how UK/Irish trade could be conducted after Brexit to achieve a friction-free border.

Download the full document here:

The ‘SuperCanada’ option remains the best basis for a UK-EU trade deal

For several years now, I have been arguing for a ‘SuperCanada’ (or CETA+++) bespoke deal with the EU to replace our EU membership. In the next few weeks, it’s very possible this will become the UK’s agreed position after Cabinet level discussions.

I would be relieved rather than celebratory if this were to be the case, as I honestly believe SuperCanada works for all sides and avoids many of the complications of trying to half stay in the EU, Single Market, EEA or, critically, the EU Customs Union.

We’d be simply like many other free, sovereign, independent nations – such as Japan, the USA or India – seeking a friendly and mutually advantageous trade deal with the EU.

Read the full article by David on brexitcentral.com by clicking here.