How to get Brexit back on track when the Withdrawal Agreement is rejected by MPs

The current political turmoil and constitutional crisis has so many twists and turns that it makes House of Cards look pedestrian.

Of course the real issue comes down to what happens when – rather than if – the proposed deal is voted down on tomorrow, 11th December (or even dropped).

Here there is a clear gap opening up between media reports and hard legal reality – what the actual effects are of the political manoeuvring of Dominic Grieve, Sir Keir Starmer and their merry conniving bands. There have been desperate media reports that ‘no deal’ is off the table, when it is actually remains the ‘default position’ as Andrea Leadsom told Radio 4 just last week.

Let’s assume Conservative MPs think there is enough turkey on Christmas menus not to be part of the required two-thirds majority needed to vote for a General Election, and that the EU have indeed ruled out any major renegotiation.

The bottom line is that the various options being desperately pushed by those who want ‘anything but a true Brexit’ are just not viable. There is:

  • ‘Norway Plus’ – even worse that the slavish EEA, which adds back membership of the customs union, thereby killing all future UK trade deals, and with no control of immigration, no say over EU laws, and large payments;
  • A ‘Second Referendum’ – with its totally confused offer: ‘tell us if this final 2,000-page deal is better than staying in the EU when we’ve already left. Oh, and by the way you will have to join the euro and lose the rebate’. Pointless too in that Leave is predicted to win again; or
  • Extending Article 50 to allow more muddle time – which will either mess up the EU by landing the Brexit issue right in the middle of European Parliament elections in May or mess up all the groups, chairmanships and procedures of the European Parliament in the farcical situation of British MEPs being elected for a few months.

But all such amendments to the motion are not legally binding anyway – they can only be advisory. They might bring political pressure, but they do not have legal effect. As the Commons Chief Clerk, Sir David Natzler, confirmed: whatever MPs vote on by way of motion “has no statutory significance”, as they do not constitute “a vote on whether to accept or reject no deal.” That requires new legislation. The actual law – in the EU Withdrawal Act – states clearly that we will leave on 29th March 2019.

Given that reality, and bearing in mind how rash it is to try to indicate a way forward in this maelstrom, this is what I propose now as the best next steps:

1) Assuming the vote fails on 11th December, or is put off, I believe the Government should make a statement immediately saying that preparations for a ‘no deal’ option – better called a ‘Clean Global Brexit’ or ‘World Trade Deal’ – will go into SuperDrive. Sorry, but defer Christmas!

Where there’s a will, there’s a way: in the Falklands War, the Ministry of Defence managed to put together a task force of 100 ships in just 48 hours. We can manage this process, and thousands of civil servants have been on the case for years. Like the Millennium Bug, claims of Armageddon and planes falling out the sky gave way to nothing happening on 1st January 2000.

2) The UK should then go back to Brussels, not to renegotiate this current draft Withdrawal Agreement, but to agree a pared-down, bare bones emergency series of bilateral agreements covering only the essential ‘must haves’: aviation, customs, citizens’ rights, medical products, European Investment Bank assets etc. The beauty of this is that if one agreement falls, then the others are not lost. The DUP’s Arlene Foster has proposed bilaterals. These bilaterals could be agreed by Westminster and the EU by March, and would any sane MP or MEP dare to seek to derail any such vital preparation in these circumstances? They should hold all further Westminster business, such as the Immigration and Trade bills, that may be hijacked.

3) The UK should also formally advise the EU that it wishes to accept the offer made not once but three times by the EU: that of a SuperCanada/CETA+++ Free Trade Agreement with 100{6c073e6ddc991e32b987c2976a0494c1ef7e7c4976e02d56946b9937f4a8f0f4} tariff- and quota-free access to the EU Single Market plus comprehensive services (first offered by Donald Tusk on 7th March), and which we could start negotiating from the day we become a ‘third country’ – 30th March next year.

We can build on the three pages on trade in the more appealing draft Political Declaration, but drop all notion of a ‘Single Customs Territory’ – the UK must firmly leave the EU’s Customs Union and Single Market. We are in a unique position to negotiate an FTA fast – as all our laws are convergent at present and we don’t have to spend years wrangling over which tariffs to keep or get rid of, as others do.

4) Having initiated moves to agree a SuperCanada FTA, the UK and EU can now jointly notify the World Trade Organisation (WTO) that in the light of working to agree a comprehensive FTA and future Political Declaration, we are invoking Article 24 of GATT (the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade).

This is important because Article 24 allows us to maintain the same tariff-free access to both our markets without breaching WTO discriminatory Most Favoured Nation (MFN) laws. Article 24 allows “an interim agreement leading to a formation of a free trade area” and allows “a reasonable length of time” – up to 10 years – to negotiate it.

So, we whilst we will need customs declarations under WTO, we will be able to maintain the same zero tariffs as now with the EU – the free trade area will remain. EU exporters to the UK would save £13 billion in tariffs (and our consumers too) and UK exporters £5 billion. We will also be free to lower tariffs for other trading partners as we wish – something specifically excluded in the Backstop. Nor should there be any Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) either under WTO agreements.

We can also enact the WTO’s Trade Facilitation Agreement which recently came into force that obliges the EU27 to adopt measures like authorised economic operators (trusted traders), which are part of the solution for the Northern Ireland border issue along with electronic declarations and remote checks away from the border.

5) As a sign of Britain’s free trade intent, we can now immediately initiate full and unfettered negotiations with international trade partners such as the USA, China and India, without these deals being torpedoed by being tied into the EU Customs Union, Chequers or the Backstop. The picture would be clear at last, and not be delayed by unending years of transition. Similarly, we will seek to build on current work to ‘roll over’ the benefits and obligations of existing EU trade deals such as that with South Korea.

6) So, on 30th March the UK can be cleanly out of the European Union and back into the world, with an acceptable and managed World Trade Deal option in place, free of years more wrangling over transitional arrangements, cost demands, alternative models and heightened business uncertainty – and with negotiations underway for a closer SuperCanada trade deal. We can reallocate much of the £39 billion payment lost by the EU to compensate UK-based companies legally in terms of R&D, regional aid and transport infrastructure – helping to stimulate our economy.

Like an operation we know needs doing, let us get on with the surgery quickly and speed up the recovery process.

This is indeed a Clean Global Brexit. Brexit could be over in a few months, rather than drag on for years on end.

And, for all our sakes – both Remainer and Brexiteer – let’s just get it done.

You can see David’s piece as it appears at brexitcentral here.

Carry On Brussels: Inside the EU

dcb in brusselsConservative David Campbell Bannerman looks to the future as he considers the prospect of a trade deal, while Sinn Fein representative Martina Anderson believes that Brexit could lead to her party’s ultimate goal of a united Ireland. Last in the series.

http://www.channel4.com/programmes/carry-on-brussels-inside-the-eu/on-demand/66289-003

(Sign in/Registration on Channel 4 required)

You can download David’s ‘SuperCanada’ trade model proposal mentioned in the programme from here.

 

Brexit: Jean-Claude Juncker says UK will ‘regret’ decision

13.3.18

bbc.co.uk/news

The UK will come to “regret” the decision to leave the EU, European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker has warned.

Addressing the European Parliament, Mr Juncker was cheered by Eurosceptic MEPs as he noted the UK’s departure was due on 29 March, 2019.

In response he said the time would come “when you will regret your decision”.

MEPs’ Brexit representative, Guy Verhofstadt, said the UK had to move beyond the “slogans and soundbites”.

But he said that the UK and EU were “very near” to an agreement on citizens’ rights post Brexit.

Read the article in full and David’s comments here.

“The EU: Friend or Foe?”

David was recently invited to speak at the prestigious and powerful Leading institution ‘Heritage Foundation’ in Washington.

You can visit their website here and download David’s speech here (pdf).

“Drawing on his background in the real world outside of politics — most notably in the railway business — Member of the European Parliament David Campbell Bannerman explains the problems that face British membership in the European Union, how they affect the man in the street, and what can be done about it. He examines the awkward position Britain has gotten itself into and offers a radical alternative — Britain should jump out of the EU and into a position that he dubs “EEA Lite” — a place somewhere between the EEA Agreement that Norway enjoys and the Swiss bilateral arrangements. Campbell Bannerman argues that since 90 percent of the UK economy has nothing to do with EU trade, an “EEA Lite” position would allow Britain to make adjustments that would fit its unique strengths and needs, while not being saddled with the full gambit of EU laws and regulations.”

David Campbell Bannerman wins membership ballot

I am delighted that my candidacy for re-election as a Eurosceptic MEP has been endorsed by the wider party membership, and I am grateful and humbled by all the support I have received from members, since I re-joined the party.

They are the grass-roots supporters, who work the hardest for this party giving up their own time and often their own money, in the pursuit of what they know is right for this country.

As a party, we now need to honour what the membership has said and run a strong campaign that will show the natural home for Eurosceptics is the Conservative party.

It is only the Conservative party, not UKIP, that is in a position to regain British Sovereignty and powers from Brussels through an In/Out EU Referendum and we need to make sure we communicate that to all the British people that understand our best interests lie in a new and better relationship with the EU.

What have I done for you?

Featured

Determined that British voters must have a Referendum on the EU, David’s Eurosceptic record cannot be matched by anyone else. As now, He will fight for your and Britain’s interests in Brussels as he seeks to reduce the burden of that remote and bloated bureaucracy.

David is a principled advocate of EU withdrawal while being a traditional Conservative of 23 years standing. He’s the only person who really understands UKIP, as their former Deputy Leader/Party Chairman, and he needs to be a leading part of the Conservative team to combat them in the European Elections. Positive, hard working, a team player, and easy to get on with, David makes an ideal Conservative MEP candidate.

Keeping in touch with constituents is extremely important for David

Keeping in touch with constituents is extremely important for David

What have I done for you?

  • Helped gain In/Out EU Referendum through No. 10 & Cabinet Minister advice and a book
  • Regular interviews on BBC Radio 4, TV News, local radio & press
  • Supported district and county elections across Eastern Counties with a ‘How to Fight UKIP’ memo
  • Frequently highlighted danger of EU Superstate
  • Voted against bad EU legislation
  • Campaigned in Police Commissioner (PCC) elections
  • Spoken at many Party fundraising events
  • Key role in Trade and Defence Committees
    of European Parliament
  • Helped many constituent issues
  • Twenty three year Conservative Party service as Adviser in John Major’s Government, local councillor, Westminster candidate and Head of Bow Group think tank (eg members Lilley, Howard & Macgregor).

Find out: What I believe in :: What will I do for you?


“As ever, the work you are doing on behalf of the Conservative Party is greatly appreciated, as is your determined promotion of an EU Referendum. Keep up the good work.”
Charles Walker MP, Member of Parliament for Broxbourne



“I am very pleased that we can welcome David Campbell Bannerman back to the Conservative Party. The Conservative Party is bringing in people who want to work in the national interest to sort out Britain’s problems. I am sure David Campbell Bannerman will be a valuable member of our team in the European Parliament.”

Rt Hon William Hague MP, Foreign Secretary


 


“Thank heavens that we still have folk with backbone, you’re a credit to your country.”
Stephen G, Eastern Counties Constituent


David Campbell Bannerman – Your Eurosceptic MEP.

What will I do for you?

Featured

DCB has taken the battle to UKIP in the Euro Elections 2014 – and he’s uniquely placed to know UKIP inside and out…

Determined that British voters must have a Referendum on the EU, David’s Eurosceptic record cannot be matched by anyone else. As now, He will fight for your and Britain’s interests in Brussels as he seeks to reduce the burden of that remote and bloated bureaucracy.

David is a principled advocate of EU withdrawal while being a traditional Conservative of 23 years standing. He’s the only person who really understands UKIP, as their former Deputy Leader/Party Chairman, and he needs to be a leading part of the Conservative team to combat them in the European Elections. Positive, hard working, a team player, and easy to get on with, David makes an ideal Conservative MEP candidate.

 

David meets with business people

David likes to hear from businesses of all sizes and about their concerns

What will I do for you?

  • Take the battle to UKIP in the Euro Elections 2014 – I’m uniquely placed to know UKIP inside and out
  • Make case for EU withdrawal (two-thirds of Conservatives want Out) but back our ‘Renegotiation or Out’ policy
  • Work hard for Conservative victory in 2015 General Election
  • Use my communications career experience to campaign in the media
  • Continue to oppose EU Superstate and bad EU legislation
  • Continue to be strong team player, supporting councillors, associations, PCCs & MPs
  • Continue to help constituents effectively
  • Continue to hold EU to account in trade, defence and other bodies
  • Continue to push for immigration controls and better policies
  • Campaign for road & rail improvements, e.g. A14 widening, bypasses & rail links to docks.

Find out: What I believe in :: What have I done for you


“It is a pleasure to have David come back to the Conservative fold, he has given us a great deal of help in fighting UKIP.”
David Finch, Leader of Essex County Council


 


 “I am very pleased that we can welcome David Campbell Bannerman back to the Conservative Party. The Conservative Party is bringing in people who want to work in the national interest to sort out Britain’s problems. I am sure David Campbell Bannerman will be a valuable member of our team in the European Parliament.”

Rt Hon William Hague MP, Foreign Secretary


 


“As ever, the work you are doing on behalf of the Conservative Party is greatly appreciated, as is your determined promotion of an EU Referendum. Keep up the good work.”
Charles Walker MP, Member of Parliament for Broxbourne


 


“Thank heavens that we still have folk with backbone, you’re a credit to your country.”
Stephen G, Eastern Counties Constituent


David Campbell Bannerman – Your Eurosceptic MEP

“Britain ‘playing with fire’ with EU in-out vote” – Russia Today with David Campbell Bannerman


 

Interviewed on the 23rd January 2013 on the day of David Cameron’s historic announcement of a British In/Out EU Referendum,  David Campbell Bannerman MEP said that he was delighted at the news and praised the Prime Minister’s leadership.

Read the full accompanying article on the Russia Today website here.